- Kerch bridge attack severely damaged by bomb
- Attack could be from boat or lorry bomb
- Boat bomb looking more likely at this time
This is a very quick first analysis on the attack on the Kerch bridge on 8 October 2022.
Northbound carriageway of the bridge is destroyed, with southbound looking damaged but possibly not out of use.
Rail bridge is likely damaged due to fuel train caught at exactly the right moment. This burned for many hours.
Initial suspicions pointed towards a lorry bomb from CCTV footage but there are a few things to highlight.
1 – There is quite good security for vehicles to get through to pass across the bridge. The lorry in question doesn’t appear to have been that well searched but it was stopped.
2 – If it was the lorry, why didn’t it drive slower, or even stop?
3 – If it had stopped, there is no security in that area. The driver could have bailed out of the vehicle and set it off remotely, or by a short timer – therefore surviving the attack.
4 – Why was it in the “slow” lane? For best results it would have been on the outer lane, nearer the southbound side; and the rail bridge. Stopping would’ve been even more affective.
5 – The explosion appears to have come from under the bridge – and there was possibly a boat there at the time.
6- Other CCTV footage shows a possible wave from a boat under the bridge at the time of the explosion.
Still to be confirmed, but analysis of FleetMon AIS data shows a fishing boat – Delfin – drop its AIS at 1503 UTC whilst heading towards the bridge. It could then drift towards the bridge in darkness waiting for the right moment.
Delfin’s AIS is pretty good. It has been on at all times as shown below – this is the last 30 days activity. What a better disguise than to be a fishing boat operating in the area – fishing.
This is all hypothetical, but it could have been waiting for the train to pass and then been steered towards the bridge and detonated as it passes under. A means of escape could’ve been a dinghy. If it had a good GPS system then it could’ve been pretty accurately steered for a gap, but just as simple is jumping off near to the time.
As I say – hypothetical at the moment. But I feel the boat is the better method than the lorry.
The final potential possibility are charges set on the bridge. However, I’d have though that the rail bridge would also have been targeted with this method. Particularly if the train was the real target.
It will be interesting to see if Delfin appears on AIS again later.
UPDATE
Just to confirm that Delfin has reappeared on AIS off the Crimean coast and was in a T-AIS -receiver “black hole” – though it has been picked up on S-AIS before too.
As I said above, just an idea about how this could have played out. I’m still happy with the analysis that it wasn’t a lorry bomb that caused the damage and destruction at the Kerch bridge.
planesandstuff 